{"id":9299,"date":"2025-06-20T17:11:25","date_gmt":"2025-06-20T15:11:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=9299"},"modified":"2025-06-20T17:11:25","modified_gmt":"2025-06-20T15:11:25","slug":"a-common-budget-for-a-common-defense","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2025\/06\/20\/a-common-budget-for-a-common-defense\/","title":{"rendered":"A Common Budget for a Common Defense"},"content":{"rendered":"

Tensions and conflicts across the Atlantic are rising in an increasingly troubled international environment. As a result, the issue of a common European defense has become more urgent, despite significant obstacles. The very instruments proposed by the European Commission to finance defense spending suffer from structural weaknesses due to the lack of real fiscal and political integration within the European Union. While a federal transformation of the EU seems unlikely for now, an intergovernmental initiative by \u201cwilling countries\u201d appears more realistic. It could guide cooperation toward more effective outcomes and enable the achievement of shared goals, including financial ones. However, Italy\u2014held back by anti-European sentiments among many political forces and a public opinion wary of rearmament\u2014risks being left on the sidelines.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

There is no peace in the world: according to the Institute for Economics and Peace, in 2024 there were 56 active armed conflicts worldwide. As if rising geopolitical tensions weren\u2019t enough, a new destabilizing factor has emerged: the return of Donald Trump to power. From the moment he took office, the American president adopted a highly aggressive stance toward traditional Western allies\u2014Europe above all.<\/p>\n

His conduct toward Ukraine is a revealing litmus test. After publicly humiliating President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House, the U.S. administration initiated peace talks with Moscow, excluding European countries from the negotiations. This raises the risk of signing a \u201cpeace deal\u201d that leaves the door open to future Russian military aggression. Trump also demanded that European countries increase their NATO contributions, threatening to withdraw U.S. military protection\u2014even though Article 5 of the NATO Treaty establishes the principle of collective defense: an attack on one member requires the military support of all others. \u201cThe Donald\u201d even declared his intention to annex a European region, Greenland\u2014by force, if necessary. Nor did Trump limit himself to military matters: he also launched a global trade war, though he partially walked back some of those policies.<\/p>\n

How Europe Defends Itself<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The Trump administration marks a break that is difficult to reverse in transatlantic relations. Beyond the rhetoric, Trump\u2019s position reflects a broader U.S. perspective that sees the Pacific and China as the country\u2019s future battleground.<\/p>\n

And Europe? In principle, greater autonomy from the U.S. would be beneficial for Europeans\u2014allowing them to better defend the foundational values of the Union, such as the rule of law, multilateralism, and rejection of violence as a means of resolving conflict\u2014all of which \u201cTrumpist\u201d America appears to have abandoned.<\/p>\n

The problem is that the EU is poorly equipped for the task, for both political and economic reasons. Its growth model, centered on exports, makes it vulnerable to tariffs. The requirement for unanimity among all 27 member states on major issues prevents swift decision-making. Meanwhile, the single European market remains fragmented and excludes key sectors like taxation, energy, and finance.<\/p>\n

These same difficulties arise in the most urgent challenge: common defense. Collectively, EU countries do not spend little on defense\u2014about $300 billion in 2023 (see figures below), equivalent to 1.3% of EU GDP, which may have reached 1.9% in 2024 based on preliminary estimates. However, this spending is highly fragmented: each country pursues its own projects and protects its domestic producers. The result is excessive spending relative to results, due to a failure to exploit economies of scale, and ineffective deterrence due to a lack of coordination.<\/p>\n

Moreover, some states (including Italy) still fall short of the 2% of GDP defense spending target set by NATO in 2014\u2014a threshold likely to be raised to 3\u20133.5% at the June 2025 summit.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

It\u2019s not just a question of the amount of resources. If the goal is greater independence from the U.S., new European security investments should focus on primarily European projects\u2014to take advantage of potential technological returns for the private sector. But in the critical technologies for modern defense\u2014from digital systems to satellite surveillance, artificial intelligence, and cybersecurity\u2014European industry lags far behind the U.S., making continued reliance on America necessary, at least for now (see also Lorenzo Borga\u2019s article in this issue).<\/p>\n

The Commission\u2019s Defense Plan<\/strong><\/h3>\n

To try to regain lost ground, in February the European Commission proposed the ReArm EU plan (later renamed the more peaceful \u201cReadiness 2030\u201d), consisting of two main elements. The first allows countries to increase national defense spending by up to 1.5 percentage points of GDP per year for the next four years without breaching EU fiscal rules. If fully utilized, this would generate a cumulative \u20ac650 billion in additional defense spending.<\/p>\n

The second element is the creation of a new European fund, now named SAFE (Security and Action for Europe), potentially up to \u20ac150 billion, from which countries can borrow to invest in joint defense projects.<\/p>\n

Neither tool is a silver bullet. Exempting defense spending from EU fiscal constraints helps countries with money to spend, like Germany\u2014not Mediterranean nations that need to reduce debt. Industrially, SAFE has the merit of financing joint projects involving at least two European countries, one of which must be an EU member. But there is no general coordination among EU states on which projects to fund, nor could the Commission impose one, since defense remains the exclusive competence of individual states. As a concrete example, there are already multiple competing next-generation fighter jet projects\u2014risking duplication across other weapons systems as well (see also Roberto Cingolani\u2019s interview in the April issue of eco<\/em>).<\/p>\n

Moreover, the EU has no independent revenue sources (there are no EU-level taxes). SAFE will be funded using \u201cleftover\u201d resources from the Next Generation EU plan, created in 2021 in response to the pandemic and which supports Italy\u2019s NRRP. For heavily indebted countries like Italy, borrowing under SAFE would still mean taking on new debt. For countries that already have ample resources, SAFE is redundant\u2014they can borrow on the market at lower interest rates than the Commission can offer.<\/p>\n

The Best Solution Is Politically Unfeasible<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The ideal solution would be a decisive step toward a federal EU: revising the Union\u2019s powers and decision-making mechanisms, and financing its budget with its own tax revenues. The Commission has made detailed proposals along these lines for decades, consistently rejected by member states in the European Council.<\/p>\n

With broad fiscal capacity, the EU could pursue a robust common security policy\u2014financed by joint debt if necessary\u2014and fund other \u201cEuropean public goods\u201d like the climate and digital transitions. But despite the urgent need, this step remains politically daunting. Most of the 27 EU states are unwilling to give up key aspects of national sovereignty, including in defense and taxation.<\/p>\n

The \u201cWilling\u201d and the Bruegel Plan<\/strong><\/h3>\n

It is hard to avoid the conclusion that, if any real progress is to be made, it must go beyond what the Commission has proposed.<\/p>\n

One option is for a group of key European countries to commit collectively to defense, coordinating joint projects and procurement to harness economies of scale and foster positive spillovers into both military and civilian development. A sustained collective effort would allow European firms to respond with investments and competitive pricing.<\/p>\n

The financial foundation for such a program could follow the model of the European Stability Mechanism\u2014an institution created via intergovernmental agreement among eurozone countries.<\/p>\n

A proposal along these lines was developed by the Bruegel think tank at the request of the Polish EU presidency and is currently under discussion among EU finance ministers. The idea is that a new mechanism\u2014funded with paid-in and callable capital from participating countries (i.e., \u201cdormant\u201d capital pledged but only deployed if needed)\u2014would issue debt to finance common defense investments. The mechanism would retain at least partial ownership of the developed armaments, leasing them to member states in exchange for a fee. This way, even highly indebted countries could access new weapons and technologies without having to purchase them outright.<\/p>\n

Because it would be created outside formal EU structures, this solution could also include geographically European countries not currently in the Union (read: the United Kingdom and Norway). The initiative would naturally align with NATO\u2014where European countries already cooperate operationally\u2014but prepare them to replace U.S. personnel and forces if the Americans pull out of the Alliance.<\/p>\n

The main limitation is that this would remain an agreement among sovereign states. Still, given the shared economic investment, it could be a first step toward genuine federalization of defense\u2014subject to mutual democratic oversight.<\/p>\n

And What About Italy?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

France, Germany, Poland, and the United Kingdom\u2014all preparing to support Ukraine in the face of a likely U.S. withdrawal\u2014appear to be moving toward a broader defense agreement. There is little doubt that Italy would benefit from joining.<\/p>\n

Partly because\u2014even if some political parties have recently adopted pacifist rhetoric\u2014Italy will still have to increase defense spending to remain in NATO. Partly because the U.S. seems destined to pull back, at least partially, from Europe. And not least because Italy has major defense firms that would likely benefit from such an agreement.<\/p>\n

Yet this is far from guaranteed. Anti-European sentiment dominates among governing parties, and explicitly pro-Putin forces are present in both government and opposition. Public opinion is also skeptical of greater defense engagement\u2014even in cooperation with other countries. Ukraine is once again a clear example: despite repeated verbal support for Kyiv, Italy\u2019s aid is among the lowest in Europe\u2014just 0.12% of GDP in 2022\u20132024, compared to 2% from Denmark or Estonia. Italian aid is especially lacking in the military component (see figure below). Only 30% of Italians support military aid to Ukraine\u2014one of the lowest rates in Europe. While 75% of Italians say they support a common European defense (Eupinions), only 25% see it as a priority (Eurobarometer, February 2025).<\/p>\n

Overcoming Italians\u2019 reluctance to invest in defense would require a significant information effort and strong leadership from the country\u2019s main political forces. But instead, many seem to prefer easy popularity through pacifist slogans.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Massimo Bordignon is Professor of Public Finance at the Catholic University of Milan, where he also headed the Department of Economics and Finance and the Doctoral School in Public Economics. He was a member of the European Fiscal Board at the European Commission.<\/em><\/p>\n

Nicol\u00f2 Gatti is a postdoctoral researcher in public finance at the Catholic University of the Sacred Heart in Milan, focusing primarily on public economics. He earned his PhD in Economics from the University of Lugano.<\/em><\/p>\n

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