{"id":9302,"date":"2025-06-20T17:13:27","date_gmt":"2025-06-20T15:13:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=9302"},"modified":"2025-06-20T17:13:27","modified_gmt":"2025-06-20T15:13:27","slug":"is-there-a-formula-for-peace","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2025\/06\/20\/is-there-a-formula-for-peace\/","title":{"rendered":"Is There a Formula for Peace?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Wars have devastating consequences for people and economies. Scientific research has demonstrated this repeatedly, and has also identified the root causes of conflict. But this has not been enough to deter the forces around the world that seek to undermine the pillars of sustainable peace: democracy, a solid economy, and the state\u2019s ability to fulfill essential functions such as ensuring the security of its citizens. Facing these challenges, it is dangerous to rely on a single self-proclaimed \u201cleader of the free world.\u201d Instead, we need a broad coalition of actors willing to become \u201cchampions of peace.\u201d Europe is ideally positioned to take on this role\u2014provided it can remain united and cohesive. At its side should be businesses aware of their social responsibilities and a civil society ready to raise its voice.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Even today, wars remain one of the great threats facing humanity. Beyond the enormous cost in human lives\u2014which can easily reach millions\u2014research shows that both civil wars and conflicts between nations reduce the GDP of the countries involved by an average of about one-fifth. And even once a conflict ends, recovery is slow and difficult.<\/p>\n

The Peace Formula<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Aware of the danger posed by armed conflict, the academic community in recent years has produced a large body of rigorous statistical studies that highlight the factors promoting peace, both in the short and long term. I summarized these findings in my book The Peace Formula: Voice, Work and Warranties, Not Violence<\/em>, identifying three fundamental pillars that support the edifice of lasting peace: democratic participation (voice), job creation (work), and guarantees of security and core state functions (warranties).<\/p>\n

Based on this \u201cformula,\u201d the first essential condition for peace is that citizens have a \u201cvoice.\u201d In political systems where civil liberties and political rights are recognized, where the rule of law prevails, and where checks and balances on governmental power exist, political conflict is more likely to remain contained\u2014because people have institutional tools to express discontent that are far less costly than resorting to violence. But when citizens are excluded from the political process, the idea can take hold that wielding an AK-47 is the only way to be heard.<\/p>\n

Naturally, economic factors\u2014defined here as \u201cwork\u201d\u2014also play a crucial role in the peace formula. Evidence collected from hundreds of different contexts shows that when economic prospects are poor, the \u201ccost\u201d of joining armed groups becomes lower. The vast majority of people do not have a natural inclination toward violence, and if the economy is functioning and offers them sufficient opportunities for a dignified life, they live within the bounds of legality. But when people struggle to feed their families, they can become easy prey for warlords and armed factions.<\/p>\n

Equally important factors are an efficient state and security guarantees. In the hierarchy of human needs, security ranks among the most basic. Without personal safety, it is extremely difficult for any public policy or reform to succeed\u2014because when people live in fear, even the best-designed initiatives are doomed to fail.<\/p>\n

The Dark Appeal of Autocracies<\/strong><\/h3>\n

In recent years, the three preconditions for peace seem to have greatly weakened. In the domestic politics of various countries, changes have eroded citizens’ political rights and institutional checks and balances. Around the world, increasingly bold populists follow a well-known autocrat playbook: weakening judicial independence, attacking universities, silencing the free press, and intimidating political opponents with the help of violent thugs. The path to autocracy can take many forms. Sometimes, as with fascism in the 1930s, terrible regimes come to power through coups. In other cases, despots first win at the ballot box and then gradually dismantle democracy from within. In recent years, global democracy indices show a clear trend toward autocratization, with a steady decline in democratic practices. The risk of new conflicts increases accordingly.<\/p>\n

From Multilateralism to the Rule of the Strongest<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The erosion of the rule of law and checks and balances at the national level has a counterpart internationally: attacks on the fundamental principles of international law, and on the multilateral order and its rules. We have seen multiple examples of this recently, including the violation of the borders of a sovereign state.<\/p>\n

The system based on shared rules\u2014with rights and duties for all nations\u2014is increasingly being replaced by the \u201claw of the strongest.\u201d This is an extremely troubling shift in perspective, because the post-1946 period\u2014during which wars between states have been relatively rare\u2014was largely made possible by a commitment to multilateralism. Weakening that framework risks undoing hard-won peace and stability.<\/p>\n

Economic prospects are also concerning. International trade helps reduce the risk of conflict by fostering interdependence among nations. The escalation of tariffs and trade wars not only reduces exchange but also impoverishes countries\u2014especially the less developed and those most dependent on exports. This, in turn, increases the risk of conflict by worsening economic hardship and instability.<\/p>\n

The UN in Crisis<\/strong><\/h3>\n

This brings us to the third pillar of peace: the state\u2019s ability to fulfill its core functions, including ensuring security. Here too, in many countries, a decline is evident.<\/p>\n

At the international level, a key factor must be considered: the difficult financial situation of the United Nations. Today, the UN struggles to fund peacekeeping missions in conflict zones, which severely compromises its ability to maintain peace.<\/p>\n

In this new environment\u2014marked by renewed rivalry between superpowers and a UN Security Council often paralyzed\u2014the \u201cfree world\u201d may need to look for new champions of the multilateral, rules-based order and of peace. But who could take on such a crucial role in maintaining peace? There are three main candidates: Europe, the private sector, and civil society.<\/p>\n

The New Champions of Peace<\/strong><\/h3>\n

If it can remain united and cohesive, Europe can make a significant difference. From an economic standpoint, it is already a heavyweight: the combined GDP of the European Union, the United Kingdom, the Balkans, and the EFTA states (Switzerland, Norway, Liechtenstein, and Iceland) exceeds $23.5 trillion\u2014not far behind the $27.7 trillion of the United States and about twelve times Russia\u2019s GDP ($2 trillion).<\/p>\n

If it can act in unison, Europe can assume a leadership role on the global stage and promote values like democracy, inclusion, and tolerance. If we consider that bright and innovative minds tend to seek freedom and democracy, Europe is poised to grow increasingly attractive to talent from around the world\u2014especially at a time when democratic backsliding is affecting academics and intellectuals in many parts of the globe. In short, Europe has all the tools it needs to enhance its economic, political, and security standing.<\/p>\n

The Social Responsibility of Business<\/strong><\/h3>\n

A key role must also be played by businesses and their leaders. Recent empirical studies highlight the crucial importance of responsible corporate practices. For example, about one-fifth of the wars that have recently erupted in Africa are linked to the exploitation of the continent\u2019s mineral wealth. These are conflicts that could be avoided by implementing strong corporate social responsibility policies that improve transparency and traceability in business operations. Entrepreneurs and multinationals must change their mindset and critically reassess their activities in fragile contexts. This doesn\u2019t mean abandoning poor areas\u2014that\u2019s not a solution and would actually worsen poverty and violence. Instead, businesses must recognize their power to generate either negative or positive effects in the territories where they operate. Their mission must not be driven solely by profit, but must also respond to a moral imperative: preserving peace, which is also in their own interest\u2014a true investment in the future. Because if supply chains are disrupted by war, business operations will suffer too.<\/p>\n

Finally, the responsibility for maintaining peace falls on all of us. A vast body of academic literature shows that governments tend to take popular actions\u2014like helping victims of natural disasters\u2014when they are in the public spotlight, while they often undertake unpopular measures\u2014like military strikes\u2014when public attention is elsewhere.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s true that \u201cdemocracy dies in darkness,\u201d as the Washington Post<\/em> declares\u2014but so too do repression and purges thrive when public scrutiny fades. If we want to live in a more peaceful world, we must make our voices heard as citizens: we must vote for parties that defend democracy at home and support a rules-based international order globally. And we must participate actively in public debate.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Dominic Rohner is Professor of Economics at the Graduate Institute of Geneva and the University of Lausanne. He is also Associate Editor of the Economic Journal.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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