{"id":934,"date":"2024-04-17T16:33:26","date_gmt":"2024-04-17T14:33:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=934"},"modified":"2024-05-27T19:48:00","modified_gmt":"2024-05-27T17:48:00","slug":"the-trump-loeil-how-to-squander-your-fathers-capital-and-pretend-to-be-a-successful-entrepreneur","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2024\/04\/17\/the-trump-loeil-how-to-squander-your-fathers-capital-and-pretend-to-be-a-successful-entrepreneur\/","title":{"rendered":"The Trump L’oeil: How to Squander Your Father’s Capital and Pretend to Be a Successful Entrepreneur"},"content":{"rendered":"

Between loans, bailouts, and inheritance, the former President of the United States received a lot of money from his father. If he had simply invested that money in the stock market, he could now boast a significantly larger fortune. Some data are enough to debunk the narrative of Trump as a great entrepreneur.<\/span><\/p>\n

Far from being the self-made man he claims to be, Donald Trump has received a substantial amount of money from his father throughout his life. A basic requirement for the former American president to be considered a good entrepreneur is that his current wealth be greater than what he would have had if he had passively invested the money received from his father in a stock index. To understand this, we need two pieces of information: 1) how much his fortune is worth today; and 2) how much money he received from his father (and when). Both figures are difficult to reconstruct, but thanks to the lawsuits that the former president has faced over the years, we can get a rough idea.<\/span><\/p>\n

Donald Trump\u2019s Current Net Worth<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Starting with his current wealth, among many displays of megalomania, Trump tends to inflate the value of his investments. For years he has claimed that his empire was worth 10 billion dollars. No one has ever believed this figure: the most authoritative estimate of his wealth comes from Forbes, which publishes the list of the 400 richest individuals in the United States every year. In 2015, the magazine estimated Trump’s fortune at 4.5 billion dollars. Since then, his assets have significantly decreased, not only due to the performance of the real estate market but also because, thanks to the trials, we now know what everyone suspected: to borrow money from banks, Trump blatantly inflated the value of his properties and even their square footage. On March 26, Forbes released an updated estimate that takes into account Trump’s legal debts\u2014it is unclear, however, how his personal debts are accounted for. Excluding his stake in X\u2019s emulator (formerly Twitter), Truth Social, his assets would be valued between 1.5 and 1.8 billion dollars. Let’s take the highest value in the range, which is 1.8 billion dollars: this is the first figure we need for our calculation.<\/span><\/p>\n

What He Received from His Father<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Now let’s look at the second piece of data we need, namely how much Trump received from his father, Fred, over the years. Our reconstruction is largely based on a New York Times investigation from October 2018, which itself was founded on the analysis of over 100,000 pages of documents and hundreds of interviews. To anticipate the main conclusion of the report: over time, Donald received tens of millions from his father, in addition to an inheritance valued at 177 million dollars in 2004. If he had invested these sums in the S&P 500 index (the index of the 500 largest publicly traded companies in the United States), and always excluding his participation in Truth Social which we will discuss below, today Trump’s fortune would be worth between 2.5 and 3 billion dollars, depending on the assumptions. Thus, much more than 1.8 billion: the power of compound interest. But let’s understand in detail how these figures are reached.<\/span><\/p>\n

The New York Times documents 295 cases of money transfers from Fred Trump to his son. To give an idea of the magnitude of these transfers, let’s focus on the main ones.<\/b><\/h3>\n
    \n
  1. According to the NYT, before 1990 Fred Trump quietly transferred to his son the equivalent at current prices\u2014taking inflation into account\u2014of $46.2 million, of which $9 million was before 1975. To be cautious, let’s assume that Donald received $1.6 million (equivalent to $9 million at current prices) all in 1975 and the remaining $15.9 million (equivalent to $46.2 million minus the $9 million received in 1975, converted to the 1990 value) all in 1990. If invested in the S&P 500, this would now be worth $839 million.<\/span><\/li>\n
  2. In December 1990, there was a real bailout of the son by Fred. Trump’s father sent an associate to Atlantic City who bought $3.35 million in chips\u2014along with a check for $150,000\u2014at Trump Castle, one of Donald\u2019s casinos, to prevent him from defaulting on bonds he had issued to finance its purchase. This was a covert and illegal donation, for which Fred paid a penalty of $65,000. If invested in the S&P 500, the $3.5 million saved in 1990 would have made Donald richer by $118 million in 2024.<\/span><\/li>\n
  3. In 1991, for $10,000 Fred Trump sold to his son Donald stocks that had a market value of $15 million. This was another covert illegal donation of $14,990,000. If invested in the S&P 500, today they would be worth $379 million.<\/span><\/li>\n
  4. In 2004, the children sold Fred\u2019s estate, who had passed away in June 1999: Donald’s share was $177 million. If invested in the S&P 500, today it would be worth more than a billion, precisely $1.190 billion.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    How much he has squandered over the years<\/b><\/h3>\n

    Adding up all these figures (839+118+379+1190), we reach the sum of $2.5 billion. Simply investing the amount received from his father would have allowed Donald Trump to have a wealth today nearly 50% higher than what he actually possesses. In fact, the capital squandered by Donald Trump could be well over $700 million (the difference between $2.5 billion and $1.8 billion).<\/span><\/p>\n

    Let’s start with another data point, an estimate of Trump’s wealth in 1975. In that year, The New York Times published a flattering article about a young up-and-comer on the New York scene, named Donald Trump, claiming he was \u201cworth $200 million.\u201d If true, and if that young man had invested it in the S&P 500, today he would have a fortune of almost $37 billion. Of course, in the article the young up-and-comer claimed to be worth more than double that, $500 million, which, if invested, would today be worth $92 billion.<\/span><\/p>\n

    But let’s return to the figure of $2.5 billion as the wealth Donald Trump could have had today without venturing into business activities. This is a conservative estimate because in our calculations we have assumed that Trump received the equivalent of $46 million at today’s prices in just two installments, in 1975 and 1990. In reality, the former president received this money from his father gradually, even before the two dates mentioned, and therefore could have begun to accumulate it well before 1975 and 1990.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Let\u2019s do some calculations. From the NYT investigation, we learn that from the age of 3, Trump earned $200,000 a year (in today’s dollars); he was a millionaire by age 8; at 17, his <\/span>father gave him part of a building with 52 apartments; shortly after graduating, at 22, he received $1 million a year from his father (in today’s dollars). The amount then progressively increased, reaching $5 million when he was 40. Making cautious assumptions about the timing of these flows, if he had passively invested them in the stock market, Trump’s fortune would be $3 billion today. In other words, as a businessman Donald would have burned through $1.2 billion during his tumultuous career.<\/span><\/p>\n

    But even this is an underestimate, as there are countless other episodes demonstrating Donald Trump’s poor entrepreneurial skills. For instance, his father saved him from bankruptcy on other occasions besides the Trump Castle incident. For example, in 1980, Fred lent Donald $7.5 million interest-free and without a due date, which Donald almost certainly never repaid. In 1985, when Trump Jr. was about to go bankrupt in Atlantic City, his father personally guaranteed a bank loan of $35 million, which Donald could never have obtained otherwise, and without which he would have had to start from scratch. There are other examples too. The NYT reconstruction also does not cover the gifts received from the father from 1990 to 1999, the year he died. True, if today Donald Trump wanted to liquidate a hypothetical investment in the S&P 500, he would have to pay taxes (indeed he would have had to pay them on the gifts received from his father as well, but as the NYT documents, all transfers were structured in such a way as to almost completely evade them). At the same time, he would have to pay taxes if he were to liquidate the real estate investments of his current wealth. Therefore, it is legitimate to compare his current wealth with what he could have had without being an entrepreneur.<\/span><\/p>\n

    In conclusion, if Donald had invested in the S&P 500 the amounts received from his father, today he would have a fortune between $2.5 and $3 billion, compared to the $1.5-1.8 billion estimated by Forbes. In other words, his business activities would have lost him between $700 million and $1.5 billion.<\/span><\/p>\n

    The participation in Truth Social\u00a0<\/strong><\/h3>\n

    On March 25, Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG), the parent company of Truth Social, the social media platform founded by Donald Trump after his Twitter account was closed, was listed on the stock exchange. Trump owns about 57% of TMTG shares. By the close of trading on Friday, March 29, TMTG was valued at $8.4 billion; hence, Trump’s share was theoretically worth $5.3 billion. In other words, with the listing of Truth Social, Trump would have overnight increased his virtual wealth by over $5 billion.<\/span><\/p>\n

    What accounts for this sudden increase? Certainly not business acumen. In 2023, TMTG reported revenues of $4.1 million and annual losses of $58 million. Therefore, the price-to-revenue ratio of the company (i.e., how much one needs to pay to buy the company relative to the revenues it can generate) reached the stratospheric level of 1,825. For comparison, the average price-to-revenue ratio of S&P 500 companies is 2.8, Reddit’s is 8, and Nvidia, the company of the moment with a market capitalization of over $2 trillion and sales 15,000 times those of Truth Social, has a price-to-revenue ratio of 37.<\/span><\/p>\n

    The reason for Truth Social’s absurd valuation is political: hundreds of thousands of MAGA (Make America Great Again, the movement founded by Trump in the 2016 presidential elections) fanatics are buying shares of Truth Social to show their support, indirectly finance his campaign, and assist him in his well-known legal troubles. To quote three of these fans, as reported by the Wall Street Journal: “I bought TMTG shares last Monday and Tuesday, a bit at a time, to show my support for the company”; another said, “Great way to say ‘patriots in charge'”; and yet another, “I bought more shares because we want to make Trump a multi-billionaire #LetsmakeTrumpaTrillionaire.”<\/span><\/p>\n

    Ironically, Trump’s virtual wealth, achieved solely through his popularity as a politician, may not translate into real wealth, and many of his fans may find they have sacrificed for nothing. By law, he cannot sell his shares for six months. Furthermore, due to an agreement with investors\u2014who evidently did not trust him\u2014Trump cannot even use his stake as collateral to obtain the loan he needs to pay his bail in the New York trial. If, after six months, he were to sell his stake, the price would likely plummet. That is if it hasn’t already collapsed earlier, as most of this type of listing then loses value. Exactly what happened on Monday, April 1, when the stock fell by 20%, shaving a billion off Trump’s virtual wealth in a few hours.<\/span><\/p>\n

    A failed entrepreneur<\/b><\/h3>\n

    In summary, regardless of one’s opinion of Donald Trump as a political entrepreneur, there is no doubt that he has been a failure as an economic entrepreneur. And let’s not forget that he has conducted nearly all his business career in just one sector, real estate, which is certainly not particularly innovative (nothing like a similarly controversial but definitely innovative figure like Elon Musk). The few times Trump ventured beyond, such as with the Trump Shuttle purchased from Eastern Airlines or Trump University, he failed within a few years. Even in real estate, he stayed afloat thanks to his father’s help and connections (also initially inherited from Fred) with the much-despised public sector. Like his father, many of Trump’s first deals involved rent-controlled housing, manipulating local authorities to raise rents and reduce maintenance costs, and especially benefiting from huge public subsidies to develop Atlantic City casinos and to remediate and build several buildings in New York.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Sources and Methods of Our Calculations<\/i><\/strong><\/p>\n

    We utilized two sets of data to compute the potential returns Donald Trump could have accrued by investing the funds received from his father in the S&P 500 index. Firstly, we employed monthly data on the performance of the S&P 500 over time, assuming that dividends were reinvested immediately; and secondly, we used data (also monthly) on the Consumer Price Index in the United States. Both datasets can be downloaded from the Official Data website, which calculates the current value of a dollar invested and reinvested in the S&P 500 at any point in the past. The Consumer Price Index data helped us adjust the values estimated by The New York Times from 2024 prices to current prices at the time of the transfer. For example, $9 million at 2024 prices given in 1975 would be worth about $1.6 million at 1975 current prices: we need to multiply 9 by the ratio of the Consumer Price Index in 1975 (53.81) to the Consumer Price Index in 2024 (313.17). The data on monthly changes in the S&P 500 index were then used to determine what Trump\u2019s wealth would be today if he had invested the money from his father in the stock index. For instance, the transfer of $1.6 million in 1975, if invested in the index in January 1975, would have yielded 10.1% in one month, increasing this capital to 1.6*(1+0.101) = $1.76 million. In February, this capital would have yielded another 4.97%, thus increasing the capital to 1.76*(1+0.0497) = $1.85 million, and so on. Naturally, in months with negative returns, the capital would decrease from the previous month. The important thing to note is that the capital grows more than the stock index performance because by reinvesting its returns, the invested capital increases month by month. This is the law (or if you prefer, the miracle) of compound interest, which was explained in our column “Understanding Finance.” This law tells us, for example, that capital with an average return of 2% per year doubles its value in about 26 years. Furthermore, dividends are also reinvested. Despite all this, Trump managed to accomplish the opposite: halve (or even more than halve, as we discuss in the article) the wealth gifted to him by his father.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

    ** Tito Boeri e Roberto Perotti<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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