{"id":939,"date":"2024-04-17T16:46:05","date_gmt":"2024-04-17T14:46:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=939"},"modified":"2024-05-27T19:48:07","modified_gmt":"2024-05-27T17:48:07","slug":"who-is-spared-and-who-is-not-from-inflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2024\/04\/17\/who-is-spared-and-who-is-not-from-inflation\/","title":{"rendered":"Who is Spared and Who is Not from Inflation"},"content":{"rendered":"

What happens to the purchasing power of workers when inflation rises? Data allow us to reconstruct what has happened from the 1970s to 2022. They suggest that, unlike in the 1970s, in 2022 it was primarily blue-collar workers who suffered a significant erosion of purchasing power.<\/span><\/p>\n

The recent spike in prices over the last two years has reminded us that inflation remains an ever-present risk, with significant consequences for incomes and consumption. Inflation acts as a tax on household budgets: in the absence of wage adjustments, it reduces their spending capacity. It is worth asking how wages have responded to inflation in our country. How many workers have managed to recover, fully or partially, the loss of purchasing power caused by rising prices? Which categories of workers have been able to defend themselves better?<\/span><\/p>\n

The Trend of Inflation<\/b><\/h3>\n

Let’s start with the data on inflation. Figure 1 shows its trend in Italy and in major Italian cities. Among the various price indices provided by ISTAT, we chose the cost of living index for the families of blue-collar and white-collar workers.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

After an initial period when inflation was high, it dropped dramatically in the eighties and nineties, reaching rates oscillating between 2% and 3% with the introduction of the single currency, similar to those of other euro area countries, even reaching negative peaks in 2016 and 2020. The strong and unexpected jump in 2021, when inflation reached 7.9% (a level not seen since 1985), raised fears of a return to the price-wage spiral of the seventies and early eighties, marked by rising commodity prices that automatically translated into wage increases, to which companies responded by raising prices again, leading to new wage increases, and so on in a perverse dynamic. The absence of an automatic wage indexation mechanism, abandoned in 1992, and the decisive intervention of the European Central Bank have helped prevent the recurrence of this type of chase, making a rapid return of inflation possible.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Impact of Inflation on Wages<\/b><\/h3>\n

To understand how wages have responded to inflation, we delved into what former Labor Minister Ermanno Gorrieri called the “retributive jungle” of Italy, using the administrative archives that INPS makes available for research purposes through the Visitinps program. These archives contain accurate information on the annual wages and other individual characteristics of Italian private sector non-agricultural employees (excluding domestic workers) from 1974, with about 9.2 million employment relationships registered, to 2022 (the last year available), with about 20.5 million employment relationships registered. Below, we report what the data tell us for the group of workers present in the Visitinps data who, for two consecutive years, worked full-time for the entire year without changing employers or job types. <\/span><\/p>\n

Clearly, this is a group not representative of the entire workforce, as there are many workers who work part-time or, for various reasons, only part of the year. For each of these “stable” workers, we can calculate the annual wage variation, defined as the percentage difference between the annual taxable wages at current values, including the part exceeding the contributory ceiling: in other words, the increase or decrease in wages from one year to the next, in percentage terms. Although they represent only 25% of the total, we <\/span>focused on “stable” workers because, given the solidity of their contractual relationship, they are characterized by a greater capacity to defend against inflation. <\/span><\/p>\n

The scenario that emerges represents therefore the “best case scenario” that one can expect by extending the analysis to the total workforce. It is very likely that other employees fared worse. The data allow us not only to study average wage variations over time but especially to assess the differences between workers in the trend of their wages: that is, how large the share of workers who experienced wage variations between 0% and 1%, or between 1% and 2%, and so forth. In Figure 2, which refers to the years 1976, 1996, 2011, and 2022 (the last of our data), the area to the left of the red line corresponds to negative wage variations: it therefore measures the share of stable workers who have seen their wages decrease in nominal value, i.e., their salary without taking inflation into account. Since inflation in these years has always been positive, this share of workers has suffered an even stronger decrease in their real wages, adjusted for inflation. <\/span><\/p>\n

The area between the red line and the green line measures instead the share of stable workers who have seen their nominal wages increase, but less than the inflation rate: even for them, real wages have decreased. The area to the right of the green line finally measures the share of stable workers who have seen both their nominal and real wages grow (albeit to a lesser extent). In 1976, with an inflation rate of 16.5% and wages indexed through the “scala mobile” mechanism, the decrease in nominal wages was a rare phenomenon \u2013 the area to the left of the red line is indeed very small \u2013 and wage variations mainly revolved around a value of 20%, more than 3 percentage points above the annual inflation rate, with a non-negligible share of workers with wage variations exactly equal to zero, who thus saw neither an increase nor a decrease in their salary. Over the years, with the reduction of inflation, the share of stable workers with negative wage variation has progressively increased \u2013 as can be seen from the widening of the area to the left of the red line \u2013 exceeding 30% in 2011. Let’s focus on what happened in 2022. Despite inflation having reached 7.9%, for more than three-quarters of the workers the wage variations compared to 2021 remained below the inflation rate (Table 1). For these workers, there has therefore been a significant drop in real wages (Table 2). To find out what happened in 2023, we must wait for the new data, but the signs that can be gathered from the ISTAT index of contractual wages, which grew last year by only 3.1%, do not seem to indicate a strong recovery of nominal wages.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Figure 3 shows the share of stable workers with negative wage variations or lower than inflation (and therefore with negative real wage variations). While the former has increased over time, especially during the eighties, the latter fluctuates considerably around an average value of about 40%. In other words, on average during the period considered, about 4 workers out of 10 were unable to recover the annual loss of purchasing power due to inflation. In some years, however, this share exceeded 50%, with peaks of about 60%. These peaks were usually reached during periods of recession (indicated by the gray bars in the chart) when, under the threat of unemployment, the bargaining power of workers is considerably reduced. 2022 is a year apart. Caught off guard, and perhaps contractually weakened by years of low economic growth, workers and unions were unable to counter inflation, and the share of workers with negative real wage variations reached 77%.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Which Workers Suffered Most from Inflation?<\/b><\/h3>\n

In Table 1, we compare, for different groups of stable workers, the share with wage variation below the inflation rate, and therefore with negative real wage variation, distinguishing between five periods: the period 1974-1984 of high inflation; the period 1985-1992 of rapid inflation decline; the period 1993-2000 of further, but more moderate, decline; the period 2001-2021 of stable and low inflation; and the spike in prices in 2022. The first comparison is between females and males. Here the differences are limited although, on average over the entire period, the share of male workers who have seen their real wages decrease (41%) is slightly higher than that of females (39.6%). More interesting are the data on workers distinguished by professional classification, that is, blue-collar workers, white-collar workers (including managers) and executives. During the period of high inflation, thanks to the indexing mechanism that favored lower wages, the share of blue-collar workers who could not recover the annual loss of purchasing power was slightly lower than that of white-collar workers and executives. Things changed after the abrogative referendum of the scala mobile in 1985, and in the period 1985-2000 blue-collar workers suffered more from inflation compared to the other two groups. In the years following Italy’s entry into the Monetary Union, no major differences between groups were registered, although white-collar workers seem to have defended themselves slightly better. On average over the entire period, however, blue-collar workers are the group that has suffered the most from the erosion of purchasing power caused by inflation. This conclusion is confirmed by the 2022 data: the share of blue-collar workers with wage variation below inflation was 78.9%, against the share of 76.6% for white-collar workers and 63.5% for executives.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Finally, Table 2 shows the distribution of stable workers (females, males, blue-collar workers, white-collar workers, executives, and total) based on the variation of their real wages in 2022: positive or negative and ranging between 0 and -5%, between -5 and -10% (the most frequent class), between -10 and -15%, and -15% or less. Again, the differences between females and males are small, while they are greater among workers with different professional classifications. In particular, blue-collar workers are the group that has been least able to recover the erosion of purchasing power caused by the inflation spike, suffering more than all others from real wage reductions of more than 10%. Executives are the only group where the majority have seen increases in real wages, or at least reductions of less than 5%.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

In summary, our analysis reveals a complex and in some respects unexpected picture. Even among the most stable workers, non-negligible shares have experienced a decrease in nominal wages. The recovery of wages relative to inflation has occurred unevenly both over time and among different groups of workers, with significant categories (such as blue-collar workers, for example) recording greater losses of purchasing power after the abolition of the scala mobile compared to others. The question remains as to what happened last year, but for this, we must wait a little longer, until the data for 2023 are available.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

What happens to the purchasing power of workers when inflation rises? Data allow us to reconstruct what has happened from the 1970s to 2022. They […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5769,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"coauthors":[69],"class_list":["post-939","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-non-categorizzato"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWho is Spared and Who is Not from Inflation - Rivista Eco<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2024\/04\/17\/who-is-spared-and-who-is-not-from-inflation\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Who is Spared and Who is Not from Inflation - Rivista Eco\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"What happens to the purchasing power of workers when inflation rises? 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