{"id":9560,"date":"2025-07-18T16:41:55","date_gmt":"2025-07-18T14:41:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=9560"},"modified":"2025-07-18T16:41:55","modified_gmt":"2025-07-18T14:41:55","slug":"thawing-relations-between-london-and-brussels","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2025\/07\/18\/thawing-relations-between-london-and-brussels\/","title":{"rendered":"Thawing Relations Between London and Brussels"},"content":{"rendered":"

The rapprochement between the United Kingdom and the European Union is advancing in small steps, through complex technical negotiations that deliberately take place away from media attention. The Labour government remains hostage to the fear of fueling the propaganda of hardline Brexiteers and therefore maneuvers through an ambiguous strategy, balancing diplomatic caution with symbolic concessions. Especially since the core issues under negotiation are far from marginal: food trade, youth mobility, defense and security cooperation, and environmental policy coordination. Still, the path seems set: the world has changed, and all countries are being called to reassess their alliances and strategic positions.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Like two former spouses coming closer after a bitter divorce, the United Kingdom and the European Union now appear to be cautiously reconnecting. They do so with careful gestures, fleeting glances, and discreet meetings\u2014trying not to attract the attention of those once caught in their fierce marital battles. The goal now is to explore the possibility of a better future, to mend the cracks, and recover, among the rubble, what was precious in forty years of life together. All of this takes place without fanfare or lofty proclamations, out of fear that the noise of politics might shatter the fragile balance of reconciliation.<\/p>\n

Why Starmer Doesn\u2019t Invoke Labour\u2019s Consistency<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Apart from the most hardline Brexiteers\u2014now represented almost solely by Nigel Farage, amplified by the powerful megaphone of the three right-wing dailies (the three Dailys: Telegraph<\/em>, Express<\/em>, and Mail<\/em>), which fiercely oppose even the slightest hint of rapprochement\u2014the British ruling class now recognizes the value of rethinking its relationship with the EU. Much like our estranged spouses (\u201clet\u2019s start with dinner, maybe then a couple of days at the beach, just the two of us\u201d), the UK and the EU avoid speaking openly about the endpoint of this path (a full return? a Swiss or Norwegian model?). But on one point they seem to agree: it\u2019s time to get closer again. According to polls, this view is now shared by a majority of British voters.<\/p>\n

In the fantasy world of politics free from real constraints, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer would have a straightforward argument to justify a UK return to the EU. In short: Labour opposed the referendum; at the time of the vote, the party was almost unanimously in favor of remaining; the promises made by Brexit supporters were not fulfilled; and, nine years after the referendum\u2014five after the formal exit\u2014all economic indicators show deterioration.<\/p>\n

The message would be: \u201cWe always said Brexit was a terrible idea, we\u2019ve remained consistent, and now that we have the chance, we\u2019re rolling up our sleeves to repair the damage caused by David Cameron\u2019s disastrous referendum\u2014without hesitation.\u201d<\/p>\n

However, Labour leadership sees this approach as political suicide. The ignominious end of the Tory era demonstrated that not even a solid parliamentary majority protects those who adopt policies perceived as unfair or unpopular.<\/p>\n

Labour\u2019s strategy remains ambiguous. The seemingly irrational tightening of immigration rules gave the impression of a hasty\u2014if not desperate\u2014reaction to Nigel Farage\u2019s success in the May 1st by-elections and local elections. Aligning with the most radical Brexiteers by claiming that the damage\u2014now increasingly obvious\u2014was not caused by Brexit itself but by the details of Boris Johnson\u2019s 2020 Withdrawal Agreement may be a purely tactical move. Labour ministers justify frequent contact with Brussels by claiming they are renegotiating those very terms: \u201cYou yourselves,\u201d they respond to the nationalist press, \u201ccriticize them relentlessly.\u201d<\/p>\n

But it\u2019s far from clear that this is an effective strategy. It\u2019s hard to believe that the hardcore, combative, anti-European-nationalist, and cynically Trumpian voter base would find Keir Starmer\u2019s recent tilt toward nostalgic nationalism to be genuine. Why choose a watered-down, possibly hypocritical copy, when the original is still there\u2014bold and ready for use?<\/p>\n

In any case, the process of rapprochement with the EU has begun. It is moving along multiple, complex, and often invisible tracks\u2014dynamics that are hard to reduce to simple slogans, and thus frequently escape the attention of a fast-moving, inattentive, and superficial electorate. The roadmap for this process was sketched out during the London summit on May 19th.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s on the Negotiating Table<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The first issue under discussion involves food regulations. The guidelines from the sanitary and phytosanitary agreement foresee a significant reduction in barriers to food and beverage trade, particularly those related to food safety, animal health, and crop protection. Essentially, the UK will accept EU regulations, with near-total elimination of border checks. British agriculture stands to benefit enormously from this deal. Hardline Brexiteers in the conservative press have been reduced to criticizing the extension\u2014until 2038\u2014of the transitional fishing permit regime from the Withdrawal Agreement. The Daily Telegraph<\/em>, in particular, cries disaster, calling it a death blow to the UK\u2019s fishing sector. But this sector was already among the hardest hit by Brexit: the perishability of fish does not mix well with the EU\u2019s health checks on third-country goods. It\u2019s also worth noting that the fishing industry\u2019s economic weight is quite limited: the whisky sector alone generates four times as much in GDP and employment.<\/p>\n

Another topic on the table is access to the UK for young job seekers. After stubbornly plugging his ears during the election campaign, Keir Starmer now seems willing to consider an agreement with the EU on youth mobility. The first tentative step could take the form of a specific visa, generally modeled on similar deals already signed with other countries. The agreement with Australia, for instance, allows 45,000 citizens under 35 to work in the UK for two years. A more recent agreement with India permits 1,800 temporary workers in specific professions, such as chefs and yoga instructors.<\/p>\n

Talks with Brussels still need to clarify key details: visa duration, maximum beneficiary age, renewal options. Even a limited agreement would be welcome for sectors like tourism and hospitality. In London, for example, several Michelin-starred restaurants are now forced to open only a few evenings per week due to staff shortages.<\/p>\n

A separate\u2014but equally relevant\u2014issue for the younger generation is the potential UK reentry into the Erasmus program, which promotes university student mobility. Technically, this is less complex: it would suffice to include the UK among the already accepted non-EU countries, such as Norway and Turkey.<\/p>\n

The Defense and Security Chapter<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The war in Ukraine, the conflict in Palestine, the nationalist shift in the White House, and more recently, tensions on the India-Pakistan border are dramatic events that have profoundly reshaped global diplomacy. Upheavals of this magnitude compel even the staunchest Brexit supporters to reconsider ties with the EU. It is no surprise, then, that the UK-EU security treaty, approved at the May summit, received cross-party support from Westminster.<\/p>\n

From this perspective, the path toward rapprochement will follow two main tracks. On one hand, the urgency of reinforcing Europe\u2019s eastern flank will push for greater coordination both within and outside NATO, through enhanced security cooperation. On the other, the increase in military spending promoted by the EU through the ReArm Europe plan, along with the creation of the SAFE fund for joint weapons procurement, opens new opportunities for industrial collaboration. Operational details are still to be defined, but the UK will be included among the select group of third countries\u2014including Norway, Moldova, South Korea, Japan, Albania, and North Macedonia\u2014whose companies will be able to supply arms to EU member states under the same conditions as EU firms. Another door, then, begins to open.<\/p>\n

Renewed Convergence on Green Policies<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The UK and the EU are preparing to realign their respective carbon markets, which were separated in 2020 due to Brexit. The negotiations intersect with the EU\u2019s phased introduction of the new Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Between 2026 and 2035, this tool will gradually increase the tax on imports of CO\u2082-intensive goods, while ending the free allocation of emissions allowances for EU operators. The goal is simple but ambitious: to ensure a level playing field between European industries and those from the rest of the world.<\/p>\n

This is far from a secondary issue. On one hand, the price of carbon in the UK is currently about half that of EU allowances, creating a potentially significant competitive edge. On the other hand, the affected sectors are broad: CBAM already covers cement, aluminum, iron and steel, electricity, fertilizers, and hydrogen\u2014including intermediate goods. That list will grow in the future. It is a technical, complex, and crucial subject.<\/p>\n

For this reason, it is often easier to divert attention elsewhere. Take the public comments by Tony Blair last month, when he declared that climate neutrality (net zero) policies are bound to fail\u2014though headlines omitted the key caveat: \u201cwithout public support.\u201d Far less media attention went to the analysis from the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, which compares the emissions reductions achievable through lower consumption with those from alternative technologies and carbon capture.<\/p>\n

The Age of Reconsideration<\/strong><\/h3>\n

In conclusion, the rift between the UK and the EU reached its peak under Boris Johnson\u2019s government. Today, the hope is that the gap will continue to narrow, albeit gradually. Over time, perhaps the zealots who led the anti-European crusade will fade from the scene\u2014and be replaced by an opposition capable of dialogue, reasoning, and perhaps mutually acceptable compromise.<\/p>\n

The road ahead is long and winding. Its ultimate destination remains far from clear. For now, expressions like \u201csingle market,\u201d \u201ccustoms union,\u201d or \u201cfree movement of people\u201d remain taboo\u2014akin to profanity in a conclave. But one thing is certain: even the most ardent Brexit supporters cannot ignore that the world of 2025 is not the world of 2013. When David Cameron launched the referendum idea, Barack Obama was in the White House and Vladimir Putin was attending the G8 summit in Northern Ireland. Since then, global balances have been overturned. And in such a transformed context, every country must reassess its strategic choices and its place in the world.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Gianni De Fraja is a professor of economics at the University of Nottingham and a Research Fellow at CEPR. His research focuses on public economics, particularly labor and education economics.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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