{"id":9564,"date":"2025-07-18T16:44:32","date_gmt":"2025-07-18T14:44:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=9564"},"modified":"2025-07-18T16:44:32","modified_gmt":"2025-07-18T14:44:32","slug":"six-reasons-to-say-no-to-eastern-enlargement","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2025\/07\/18\/six-reasons-to-say-no-to-eastern-enlargement\/","title":{"rendered":"Six Reasons to Say No to Eastern Enlargement"},"content":{"rendered":"

The eastward enlargement of the European Union is now almost taken for granted in political and diplomatic circles. But expanding the borders without first building a solid political union risks undermining the EU\u2019s ability to tackle major global challenges. Without overcoming the unanimity constraint and equipping Europe with a majority-based decision-making system, enlargement would only deepen divisions and make it even harder to take effective decisions\u2014especially on issues such as common defense, fiscal policy, and fundamental rights. The accession of new countries with strong nationalist and pro-Russian components could also destabilize the EU\u2019s internal balance, reduce its geopolitical ambition, and block any effort to strengthen integration.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Eastern enlargement now seems almost a foregone conclusion within EU political and diplomatic circles. At this historical juncture, the dominant idea is that admitting new Balkan countries into the EU is both useful and fair\u2014even if they have not yet completed the traditional institutional, legislative, and economic alignment processes with the values and norms that form the Union\u2019s foundation.<\/p>\n

Yet further expanding the EU\u2019s borders remains, in reality, a mistake. This is not about pointing out the shortcomings or delays of individual candidate countries like Serbia or Georgia. The objection is broader\u2014and deeper.<\/p>\n

There are at least six reasons to believe that further EU enlargement is a bad idea.<\/p>\n

The most important is that a real political union\u2014one in which no single state has veto power under any circumstances\u2014must be built first. Only after achieving a political union capable of making decisions without the requirement of unanimity should new accessions be considered.<\/p>\n

At the start of the century, figures like Giscard d\u2019Estaing and Giuliano Amato proposed and outlined the principles of a constitution for the United States of Europe, which would have provided the Union with solid democratic foundations. Instead, only a monetary union was adopted. But without the support of a political and fiscal union, the monetary union creates a system that obstructs both income redistribution and effective coordination in producing essential public goods.<\/p>\n

Between 2000 and 2004, the creation of the United States of Europe was a concrete and largely shared project. It disappeared from public and political debate after the first enlargement to the East, which expanded the Union from 15 to 28 members. Even in countries that had previously supported the Amato-d\u2019Estaing constitution, consensus vanished once Europe was perceived as a union called to support distant and poorer nations.<\/p>\n

In the EU\u2019s founding countries, the interests of wealthier citizens, large companies, and financial institutions were aligned in supporting enlargement to 28 states without deeper political integration. This guaranteed economies of scale and growth without having to face redistribution mechanisms. Even if an EU country wanted to increase taxation on personal income or wealth to fund social policies, public healthcare, or education, the high mobility of labor and capital would still make such measures extremely difficult to implement.<\/p>\n

By contrast, poorer citizens would have benefited from the introduction of a political and fiscal union. A common fiscal policy would have drastically weakened the threat of capital and business relocation to other countries.<\/p>\n

The middle class finds itself in an intermediate position: its interests may align with either the wealthy or the poor, depending on the circumstances. However, when labor and capital are highly mobile, the middle class knows it cannot keep pace with capital flows and ends up bearing a greater share of public spending. For this reason, it tends to support greater political integration.<\/p>\n

In 2004, labor and capital mobility were very high. The wealthier classes, sensing the risk that the middle class might lean toward supporting European political union, found an ally in the EU\u2019s enlargement to 28 states. At that point, the middle classes of the founding countries gradually aligned with the wealthy, opposing the idea of political union for fear of bearing the financial burden of a more redistributive EU.<\/p>\n

Twenty years have passed, and today political union is more necessary than ever\u2014not just for economic reasons, but also to ensure a common defense and support technological transformation. Precisely for this reason, we cannot afford to repeat the same mistake by admitting new countries whose political regimes and electorates are largely disinclined to support a strong and united Europe.<\/p>\n

How Hard It Is to Make Decisions in Europe<\/strong><\/h3>\n

As I showed in a 2006 article in the American Economic Review<\/em>, the EU should adopt majority-based decision-making rules, eliminating the current unanimity requirement. However, if the Union expands, transitioning to majority rule becomes more difficult: countries, deprived of their veto power, fear being outvoted in decisions involving an increasing number of interests and divergent preferences.<\/p>\n

Yet a system that preserves national sovereignty intact does not allow for effective, rapid decision-making\u2014and sometimes prevents reaching any common decision at all. As membership grows, so do conflicting interests, further reducing the Union\u2019s ability to act.<\/p>\n

Only after shifting to majority rule will enlargement truly be able to generate benefits for all.<\/p>\n

A Union That Wavers in Turbulence<\/strong><\/h3>\n

A political union is also necessary because a monetary-only union is particularly vulnerable to volatility and instability\u2014as shown by the 2008 financial crisis.<\/p>\n

The current system does not allow effective counter-cyclical policies during recessions. On the contrary, countries hit hardest and struggling to pay debt interest often face strict budget constraints that force them to cut public spending even further\u2014exacerbating the crisis rather than easing it.<\/p>\n

Normally, a country would respond to a crisis with a combination of monetary and fiscal policies. In the EU, however, this is not possible: fiscal policy remains in national hands, while monetary policy is centralized at the European Central Bank. The result is that crisis responses are always partial and delayed.<\/p>\n

Today\u2019s new geopolitical landscape, along with uncertainty over the future of the World Trade Organization and other international institutions, further increases the risk of instability. To address these risks, more political integration is needed\u2014yet another reason to postpone any new EU expansion.<\/p>\n

More Difficult Cultural Integration<\/strong><\/h3>\n

More effective European institutions\u2014able to guarantee uniformity and legal certainty, for example by protecting rights and contracts through equal incentives and penalties\u2014help bridge cultural divides. Economic interactions between private entities and institutions from different countries are safer when rules and rights are harmonized.<\/p>\n

Further enlarging the Union, however, introduces new cultural differences, thereby distancing the possibility of convergence toward a single rule of law fully respected by all.<\/p>\n

Once again, things would be easier if the Union adopted majority decision-making in both legislative and executive areas: no country could impose its own rules\u2014whether regarding human rights or media pluralism\u2014on others.<\/p>\n

For this reason, the admission of new member states should only be considered after reforming the EU\u2019s governance rules.<\/p>\n

Common Defense and Global Challenges<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Would expanding Europe\u2019s borders really help it tackle increasingly complex global challenges\u2014from climate change and shifting geopolitics to the military and economic threats of superpowers, artificial intelligence, and cyberattacks? During the COVID pandemic, the EU managed to provide a swift and effective common response. However, that reaction did not produce structural change\u2014likely due to the extraordinary and temporary nature of the health crisis.<\/p>\n

On the military front, as I argued in the May issue of eco<\/em>, the European common defense resembles a train with 27 wagons\u2014but no locomotive. This condition has been exacerbated by shifts in U.S. foreign policy. Allowing member states to increase national defense spending strengthens individual wagons\u2014but to have a locomotive, we need a European army with autonomous decision-making and deterrence capabilities.<\/p>\n

Achieving this requires treaty reform toward greater integration and the creation of a true European Ministry of Defense\u2014or better yet, a \u201cEuropean Pentagon.\u201d Only a nimble command center, capable of rapidly reallocating resources along the Union\u2019s borders, can deliver genuine defense capacity.<\/p>\n

By contrast, another round of EU enlargement without institutional reform would only add difficulties to defense management and make the Union less credible in terms of deterrence.<\/p>\n

A real European common defense thus requires a further step toward political union\u2014one that comes close to the creation of a genuine European state.<\/p>\n

History teaches us that the moments when common defense becomes essential are also the moments when states and institutions are born. In particular, as American political scientist William Riker explained in 1962, all federal institutions have been formed in response to serious external threats.<\/p>\n

Why Empower Nationalists?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The 2024 European elections confirmed the strength of Eurosceptics and nationalist populists in Europe\u2014even if not to the point of entering the coalition currently supporting the European Commission. However, the accession of candidate countries could tip the balance: in many of these states, pro-Russian or nationalist parties enjoy broad support. In this case, the metaphor of \u201cinviting a snake into one\u2019s home\u201d would not be far from the truth: eastern enlargement could doom any European ambition of assuming a meaningful geopolitical role.<\/p>\n

In short, European citizens need an effective European government\u2014possible only through a political union in which the parliament elects a governing coalition able to make decisions by majority, free from the constant threat of national vetoes.<\/p>\n

Admitting new countries under the current rules\u2014which give every member state veto power\u2014would amount to political suicide for Europe, rendering it unable to speak with one voice on the world\u2019s most pressing challenges.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Massimo Morelli is a professor of political science and economics at Bocconi University. He has taught at various American universities.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The eastward enlargement of the European Union is now almost taken for granted in political and diplomatic circles. But expanding the borders without first building […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6529,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"coauthors":[27],"class_list":["post-9564","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-non-categorizzato"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nSix Reasons to Say No to Eastern Enlargement - Rivista Eco<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"http:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2025\/07\/18\/six-reasons-to-say-no-to-eastern-enlargement\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Six Reasons to Say No to Eastern Enlargement - Rivista Eco\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The eastward enlargement of the European Union is now almost taken for granted in political and diplomatic circles. But expanding the borders without first building […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"http:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2025\/07\/18\/six-reasons-to-say-no-to-eastern-enlargement\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Rivista Eco\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-07-18T14:44:32+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Massimo Morelli\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Massimo Morelli\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"9 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/en\\\/2025\\\/07\\\/18\\\/six-reasons-to-say-no-to-eastern-enlargement\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/en\\\/2025\\\/07\\\/18\\\/six-reasons-to-say-no-to-eastern-enlargement\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Massimo Morelli\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/8c30ddeb4008c6aae53f569a81ccce2f\"},\"headline\":\"Six Reasons to Say No to Eastern Enlargement\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-07-18T14:44:32+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/en\\\/2025\\\/07\\\/18\\\/six-reasons-to-say-no-to-eastern-enlargement\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":1588,\"articleSection\":[\"Non categorizzato\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/en\\\/2025\\\/07\\\/18\\\/six-reasons-to-say-no-to-eastern-enlargement\\\/\",\"url\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/en\\\/2025\\\/07\\\/18\\\/six-reasons-to-say-no-to-eastern-enlargement\\\/\",\"name\":\"Six Reasons to Say No to Eastern Enlargement - Rivista Eco\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2025-07-18T14:44:32+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/8c30ddeb4008c6aae53f569a81ccce2f\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/en\\\/2025\\\/07\\\/18\\\/six-reasons-to-say-no-to-eastern-enlargement\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"http:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/en\\\/2025\\\/07\\\/18\\\/six-reasons-to-say-no-to-eastern-enlargement\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/en\\\/2025\\\/07\\\/18\\\/six-reasons-to-say-no-to-eastern-enlargement\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/en\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Six Reasons to Say No to Eastern Enlargement\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/\",\"name\":\"Rivista Eco\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/8c30ddeb4008c6aae53f569a81ccce2f\",\"name\":\"Massimo Morelli\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/44bcae1c6d99e07b50a7b2e7ee619ecd152bafeaa7f04a3ba5a17aab991e650e?s=96&d=mm&r=g87e08315a628b99b22053d456feda411\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/44bcae1c6d99e07b50a7b2e7ee619ecd152bafeaa7f04a3ba5a17aab991e650e?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/44bcae1c6d99e07b50a7b2e7ee619ecd152bafeaa7f04a3ba5a17aab991e650e?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Massimo Morelli\"},\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rivistaeco.com\\\/en\\\/author\\\/mmorelli\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Six Reasons to Say No to Eastern Enlargement - Rivista Eco","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"http:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2025\/07\/18\/six-reasons-to-say-no-to-eastern-enlargement\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Six Reasons to Say No to Eastern Enlargement - Rivista Eco","og_description":"The eastward enlargement of the European Union is now almost taken for granted in political and diplomatic circles. But expanding the borders without first building […]","og_url":"http:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2025\/07\/18\/six-reasons-to-say-no-to-eastern-enlargement\/","og_site_name":"Rivista Eco","article_published_time":"2025-07-18T14:44:32+00:00","author":"Massimo Morelli","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Massimo Morelli","Est. reading time":"9 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"http:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2025\/07\/18\/six-reasons-to-say-no-to-eastern-enlargement\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"http:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2025\/07\/18\/six-reasons-to-say-no-to-eastern-enlargement\/"},"author":{"name":"Massimo Morelli","@id":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/#\/schema\/person\/8c30ddeb4008c6aae53f569a81ccce2f"},"headline":"Six Reasons to Say No to Eastern Enlargement","datePublished":"2025-07-18T14:44:32+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"http:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2025\/07\/18\/six-reasons-to-say-no-to-eastern-enlargement\/"},"wordCount":1588,"articleSection":["Non categorizzato"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"http:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2025\/07\/18\/six-reasons-to-say-no-to-eastern-enlargement\/","url":"http:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2025\/07\/18\/six-reasons-to-say-no-to-eastern-enlargement\/","name":"Six Reasons to Say No to Eastern Enlargement - Rivista Eco","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/#website"},"datePublished":"2025-07-18T14:44:32+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/#\/schema\/person\/8c30ddeb4008c6aae53f569a81ccce2f"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"http:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2025\/07\/18\/six-reasons-to-say-no-to-eastern-enlargement\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["http:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2025\/07\/18\/six-reasons-to-say-no-to-eastern-enlargement\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"http:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2025\/07\/18\/six-reasons-to-say-no-to-eastern-enlargement\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"http:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Six Reasons to Say No to Eastern Enlargement"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/","name":"Rivista Eco","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/#\/schema\/person\/8c30ddeb4008c6aae53f569a81ccce2f","name":"Massimo Morelli","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/44bcae1c6d99e07b50a7b2e7ee619ecd152bafeaa7f04a3ba5a17aab991e650e?s=96&d=mm&r=g87e08315a628b99b22053d456feda411","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/44bcae1c6d99e07b50a7b2e7ee619ecd152bafeaa7f04a3ba5a17aab991e650e?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/44bcae1c6d99e07b50a7b2e7ee619ecd152bafeaa7f04a3ba5a17aab991e650e?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Massimo Morelli"},"url":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/author\/mmorelli\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9564","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6529"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9564"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9564\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9566,"href":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9564\/revisions\/9566"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9564"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9564"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9564"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=9564"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}