{"id":9578,"date":"2025-07-18T16:51:52","date_gmt":"2025-07-18T14:51:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/?p=9578"},"modified":"2025-07-18T16:51:52","modified_gmt":"2025-07-18T14:51:52","slug":"once-upon-a-time-there-was-the-dollar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rivistaeco.com\/en\/2025\/07\/18\/once-upon-a-time-there-was-the-dollar\/","title":{"rendered":"Once Upon a Time, There Was the Dollar"},"content":{"rendered":"

For decades, the dollar has been the world\u2019s premier reserve currency, thanks to a mix of economic power, credible institutions, and international trust. However, with the arrival of the second Trump administration, its “exorbitant privilege” is starting to crack under the pressure of fiscal imbalances, the political use of finance, and a loss of credibility. The turning point may well have been the \u201cLiberation Day\u201d so dear to the U.S. president. It triggered a series of consequences that revealed the vulnerability of the system dominated by the American currency. This could represent a historic opportunity for the euro\u2014but only if it can offer a credible safe asset and lay the foundations for a fiscal union.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The U.S. Dollar Is Not Just a Currency: It\u2019s an Infrastructure of Global Power. Every day, over $7 trillion are traded on international currency markets. It is the currency in which most central banks hold their reserves; the unit used by businesses to issue invoices for trade from Milwaukee to Kuala Lumpur; and the safe asset trusted by governments and investors in times of crisis.<\/p>\n

But how did we get here? And is the dollar\u2019s throne really so solid?<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\n

Global Reserve Currency<\/strong><\/p>\n

A global reserve currency is one held in large quantities by central banks and other international financial institutions, primarily for use in international transactions, managing foreign exchange reserves, and stabilizing national currencies. It is employed in cross-border trade, foreign trade invoicing, international debt financing, and as a safe haven in times of economic uncertainty.<\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n

The Exorbitant Privilege<\/strong><\/h3>\n

In his 2011 essay Exorbitant Privilege<\/em>, Barry Eichengreen argued that the dollar\u2019s central role is not an inevitable consequence of U.S. economic supremacy, but the result of a combination of material power (especially military), institutional choices, and favorable geopolitical conditions. The Bretton Woods system, formalized in 1944, pegged the value of the dollar to gold, and other currencies to the dollar. Even after the collapse of the gold standard in 1971, the U.S. dollar continued to occupy a central role, supported by deep financial markets, reliable institutions, and\u2014most importantly\u2014a reserve of trust.<\/p>\n

The chart shows the share of dollars in global foreign exchange reserves held by central banks. In 1990, the dollar accounted for about 72% of the total; today, that share has fallen to 58%. This decline partly reflects the rise of new currencies on the international financial scene, such as the euro and the Chinese renminbi. But it also signals a deeper shift: a gradual change in how the rest of the world perceives the dollar, linked to the evolution of the U.S.’s geopolitical role\u2014an evolution made even more apparent by recent developments.<\/p>\n

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The dollar\u2019s centrality creates a unique phenomenon in the international financial system: the ability of the United States to issue debt that the rest of the world is willing to buy. This is the so-called “exorbitant privilege,” as former French president Val\u00e9ry Giscard d\u2019Estaing described it.<\/p>\n

The modern interpretation of this concept comes from economists such as Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas and H\u00e9l\u00e8ne Rey. According to their analysis, the United States acts as a kind of global \u201cbank\u201d or \u201cinsurer\u201d: it issues safe, liquid liabilities\u2014such as Treasury bonds\u2014and invests abroad in riskier but more profitable assets, such as stocks, direct investments, and private equity, especially in emerging markets.<\/p>\n

The result is that the world pays the United States a premium to hold dollars, thereby generating a rent that contributes to the sustainability of American public debt.<\/p>\n

The Role of Global Banker<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The United States’ \u201cexorbitant privilege\u201d\u2014based on the dollar\u2019s status as the reserve currency for global financial and commercial flows\u2014also has a downside: it works well in normal times. In periods of financial turmoil, such as in 2008, that privilege turns into an \u201cexorbitant duty.\u201d The U.S. suffers heavy financial losses on foreign assets denominated in currencies other than the dollar\u2014such as the euro, yuan, yen, Swiss franc, or Brazilian real\u2014because global investors flee to U.S. assets, seen as safer. This capital inflow causes the dollar to appreciate against other currencies, transferring wealth from the U.S. to the rest of the world. During the 2008\u20132009 crisis, U.S. financial losses were estimated at around 19% of GDP.<\/p>\n

In essence, the United States behaves like a global \u201cinsurer\u201d: earning high returns during stable periods thanks to its exorbitant privilege, but paying insurance premiums to the rest of the world during crises.<\/p>\n

Is Manufacturing Decline Due to a Strong Dollar?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Paradoxically, the dollar\u2019s \u201cexorbitant privilege\u201d clashes with the Trump administration\u2019s narrative, which claims that the currency\u2019s excessive strength is to blame for the decline of the manufacturing sector. A \u201ctoo strong\u201d dollar, they argue, makes U.S. exports less competitive, widening the trade deficit\u2014especially with China, Germany, and Japan.<\/p>\n

But this is a misleading view. First, because the flip side of a strong dollar is precisely the exorbitant privilege that grants the U.S. exceptional financial conditions. Second, because the decline in manufacturing employment\u2014Donald Trump\u2019s true obsession\u2014has little to do with the dollar\u2019s strength. Between 2001 and 2008, the dollar lost about 40% of its value against major currencies. Exports increased, but manufacturing still shed about 3 million jobs, according to official estimates. The causes? Not the dollar, but two deeper dynamics: outsourcing to low-cost countries like China, and\u2014above all\u2014the advance of automation and digital technologies.<\/p>\n

The manufacturing sector has undergone a profound transformation, much like agriculture in the last century. It does not need tariffs for protection\u2014it needs investment for adaptation. Consider the shift from producing cars and steel\u2014carbon-intensive sectors\u2014to developing \u201crobotaxis\u201d: autonomous electric vehicles with extremely high technological value. True, \u201cManufacturing 2.0\u201d employs fewer workers, but it drives technological progress, with ripple effects across the entire economy, including employment.<\/p>\n

Imports and exports are two sides of the same coin. Export sectors thrive precisely thanks to diversified imports\u2014this is the heart of American innovation. The U.S. certainly imports a lot, but it does so to fuel the production of high-tech goods, like the iPhone or Nvidia\u2019s semiconductors.<\/p>\n

Now, imposing trade barriers to protect industry risks backfiring: less competition, more inefficiency, and waste\u2014of both capital and labor. Cutting off high-quality foreign products would hurt the competitiveness of exports themselves, which increasingly depend on global value chains\u2014complex and tightly interconnected.<\/p>\n

A Fragile Privilege?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The dollar\u2019s privilege is not without limits or risks. The system built on global demand for dollar-denominated safe assets\u2014the so-called Treasury Standard\u2014only works as long as U.S. public debt remains within reasonable bounds. Currently, the balance is benign: the world wants to hold U.S. Treasury bonds, considered the ultimate safe haven in uncertain times. In return, the United States enjoys lower borrowing costs and a structurally powerful position.<\/p>\n

But once debt surpasses a certain threshold\u2014hard to identify in advance, but crucial for collective confidence\u2014the mechanism can break down. The premium investors are willing to pay for holding dollar-denominated safe assets begins to shrink, exposing the system to a self-fulfilling expectations crisis: if fears of a possible default or future inflation surge grow, investors start selling Treasuries. The result: higher interest rates and a worsening U.S. fiscal profile.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a dynamic reminiscent of classic emerging-market debt crises\u2014but in an “imperial” version.<\/p>\n

In such a scenario, the dollar\u2019s role as a global public good risks collapsing. What was once a structural competitive advantage can become, beyond a certain point, a magnifier of vulnerability. This is the dark side of the exorbitant privilege: a system that appears solid but rests on a fragile equilibrium of expectations. And as always in financial markets, trust is built slowly\u2014but can vanish in an instant.<\/p>\n

In recent years, the dollar has increasingly been used as a tool of geopolitical power, not just economic policy. The Trump administration made systematic use of financial sanctions, trade tariffs, and unilateral measures to pressure both rivals and allies. This political use of the American currency has undermined its perception as a neutral and reliable global public good.<\/p>\n

With Trump\u2019s second term came growing pressure on the independence of the Federal Reserve, which faced repeated interference and rhetorical attacks from the executive branch. The combination of economic protectionism and institutional delegitimization now poses a serious threat to the foundations of dollar hegemony: international trust in U.S. rules, predictability, and system stability.<\/p>\n

The real danger for the United States is not competition from other currencies\u2014but the erosion of the very conditions that made the dollar credible for over seventy years. Because trust, unlike power, cannot be imposed: it must be built, renewed, and can be lost.<\/p>\n

The Turning Point: Liberation Day<\/strong><\/h3>\n

On April 2, 2025\u2014so-called \u201cLiberation Day\u201d\u2014a turning point in global perceptions of the dollar occurred. On that date, the United States announced a sweeping package of protectionist measures and financial sanctions, triggering a chain reaction in international markets. The dollar depreciated sharply, U.S. Treasury yields rose, and trust in dollar-denominated assets began to waver.<\/p>\n

For the first time in decades, Treasury yields rose while the U.S. currency weakened\u2014a pattern strikingly similar to financial crises in emerging markets.<\/p>\n

This event cast doubt on the dollar\u2019s role as the world\u2019s reserve currency and highlighted the growing vulnerability of the United States in its role as the \u201cglobal banker.\u201d At this point, the \u201cgreat insurer\u201d no longer provides financial compensation to the rest of the world. For many, it signaled that something deeper is changing: the world may be searching for a new major insurance provider.<\/p>\n

The dollar still retains a hard-to-replace advantage: it is supported by the size of the U.S. economy, the depth of its markets, and the transparency of its institutions. But these strengths now coexist with growing fragilities: fiscal imbalances, politicization of economic policy, and the emergence of more structured currency competition.<\/p>\n

Dollar hegemony won\u2019t disappear overnight. But it could be transformed\u2014from uncontested dominance to contested leadership, from the exclusive backbone of the global financial order to one of the pillars of a multipolar system.<\/p>\n

A Golden Opportunity for the Euro<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The world sees the dollar not just as a currency, but as a promise of stability and openness. However, the Trump administration\u2019s economic and geopolitical policies are beginning to erode the institutional infrastructure and international trust that underpin American currency dominance. The risk is a disorderly transition to a more fragmented and unstable global monetary system\u2014a shift from the steady flow of a river to a sequence of rapids, with no certainty about the waterfalls that may lie ahead.<\/p>\n

As uncertain as it may be, this new landscape could present a historic opportunity for the euro. But for the euro to play a central role in the international monetary system, at least two key conditions must be met. The first is the creation of a true European \u201csafe asset.\u201d Today, the market for German bunds\u2014though considered safe\u2014is too small and illiquid to compete with the depth and scale of the U.S. Treasury market. The second condition is strengthening the euro\u2019s institutional architecture: deeper integration of capital markets, still too fragmented, and at least the embryonic start of a fiscal union.<\/p>\n

These are profound transformations that cannot happen without political courage and a vision equal to the challenges of our time.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Tommaso Monacelli is a professor of economics at Bocconi University and a Fellow at IGIER Bocconi, CEPR in Paris, and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. He served as head of the economics department at Bocconi University from 2017 to 2022.<\/em><\/p>\n

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