The vast majority of inmates in our country serve their sentences in severely overcrowded prisons. This is a chronic problem that must be addressed, including through the construction of new prison facilities. Yet even mentioning this triggers indignant reactions across the political spectrum. This is not only about complying with constitutional principles in the treatment of those who have committed crimes, but about ensuring greater safety for society as a whole. Overcrowding and recidivism are two sides of the same coin, and a purely punitive approach ends up turning prison into a university of crime. By contrast, where detention conditions are better—such as in Bollate or in women-only institutions—prisoners can take part in rehabilitation and work programs that support reintegration once they are released. And the likelihood of returning behind bars drops significantly.
More than nine out of ten inmates in Italy serve their sentences in overcrowded prisons. For more than one in three, the facility where they are held houses between one and a half to twice the number of people it was designed to accommodate. Overcrowding is not just a matter of physical space. In cells measuring 9 square meters, three, four, sometimes even five people often live together. Twenty-three hours a day confined in an environment where the air is unbreathable, privacy nonexistent, and tension palpable. Suicides are increasing in Italian prisons (70 in 2023, 91 in 2024, 80 in 2025), a clear sign of the distress we impose on inmates. It is worth remembering that the punishment imposed on them is deprivation of liberty—not being forced to survive in inhumane conditions. And that Article 27 of the Constitution states that “punishments may not consist of treatment contrary to human dignity and must aim at the rehabilitation of the convicted.”
Overcrowding is a chronic problem in our prison system. It has been discussed for decades. From time to time, measures are introduced to reduce the prison population through pardons and amnesties, which create objectionable disparities in treatment and generally fail to consider the risk of recidivism among those granted house arrest or parole. The number of inmates declines for a few months, but the problem soon resurfaces.
More Prisons Are Needed
As we document in this issue of eco, the ratio between prison capacity and population is lower in Italy than in other European countries, despite there being relatively fewer inmates. This suggests that we should increase the capacity of our prison system by building new facilities. The problem is that the entire political spectrum appears opposed to this common-sense choice, albeit for diametrically opposed reasons—so much so that the opportunity offered by the PNRR to do so was not seized.
On the left, a slogan prevails: that we should not build new prisons but instead promote the reintegration of those currently incarcerated (common phrases include “prison is a last resort” and “building new prisons is not the solution to overcrowding”). As if the two strategies were in conflict. In reality, building new prisons—thus improving living conditions for inmates—on the one hand, and rehabilitation and reduction of recidivism on the other, are two sides of the same coin. To rehabilitate, we must improve prison conditions, starting with the physical space available to inmates. How can a person prepare to return to society while living in conditions that deny the most basic human dignity?
On the right, by contrast, political rhetoric often plays on public hostility toward offenders. Some, like the Minister of Infrastructure, Matteo Salvini, upon hearing of the capture of a suspected perpetrator of a serious crime, propose locking them up immediately and “throwing away the key.” Others, like the Undersecretary of Justice, Andrea Delmastro, have admitted to feeling “intimate satisfaction” when inmates being transported by prison police are mistreated. This purely repressive approach leads to increased crime and overcrowding. The Giorgia Meloni government has introduced around forty new offenses, aggravating circumstances, and harsher penalties. This increases imprisonment for crimes that are decriminalized elsewhere: for example, 35% of inmates in Italy are incarcerated for drug-related offenses—much higher than in other countries. The same effect comes from lengthening sentences, which—as we show in this issue of eco—are already longer on average than in other European countries (8 years versus 6 elsewhere).
The Vicious Circle of Overcrowding
The primary objective of a prison system should be to minimize recidivism—the risk that an inmate, once their sentence is served, commits another crime. Today, Italy is at the opposite extreme: 68% of released inmates return to prison within five years. This figure alone should prompt reflection on the effectiveness of our penitentiary system. We are talking about two out of three people who, after serving their sentence, go back to crime. It is as if a hospital discharged patients knowing that two out of three would fall ill again with the same disease. Would we call that effective treatment?
Overcrowding and reoffending are closely interconnected: recidivism rates are higher in overcrowded prisons and, conversely, prisons are more overcrowded where recidivism is higher. So how can this vicious circle be broken? To identify appropriate measures, it is essential to determine the root causes of this situation. Does overcrowding cause high recidivism, or does recidivism cause overcrowding? Or are there other factors driving both? In this issue of eco, we present studies conducted using rigorous methods precisely to identify cause-and-effect relationships. They fill a gap in information about life inside prisons and converge in showing that recidivism stems from inadequate prison conditions. It is not only overcrowding itself, but also isolation, unhealthy conditions, lack of work opportunities, and the inability to receive frequent family visits that drive individuals to reoffend after release. In other words, by improving prison living conditions, we could reduce repeat offenses once inmates are released, lower crime rates, and improve the mental health of those behind bars.
Looking Inside Prisons
Let us summarize the main findings of these studies, which help us understand what happens within prison walls and highlight the importance of increasing transparency about what goes on inside penitentiary institutions, making the results of ministerial inspections public, and publishing detailed data on prison living conditions.
Transferring inmates even for just one year to the “open prison” of Bollate—where there was undercrowding and more work opportunities—reduces the risk of recidivism by between 15% and 25%. Female inmates assigned to women’s prisons in Italy—where there is less overcrowding and detention conditions better meet women’s needs—see recidivism rates reduced by 8 to 16 percentage points. Work during incarceration, even for just 200 hours, reduces the likelihood of returning to prison by between 25% and 30%. International experiences point to similar conclusions. France has prison overcrowding comparable to or even greater than Italy’s, and when release coincides with finding employment, the risk of reoffending drops sharply. In U.S. prisons, overcrowding helps explain why half of inmates suffer from mental illness, whereas Norwegian prisons—focused on rehabilitation (with a recidivism rate of 20%, less than a third of Italy’s)—improve mental health and reduce the need for related medical visits. Improvements in prison conditions following inspections in the United Kingdom have led to an 18% reduction in prison violence.
A Vengeful Approach Increases Insecurity
The punitive rhetoric of many members of the current majority may be aimed at masking the failure of the Giorgia Meloni government to ensure public safety. The number of crimes reported by police to judicial authorities has increased since it took office, and reports filed by citizens have risen even more. It is true that reported crimes do not always correspond to an actual increase in offenses, but the rise in reports also seems to reflect a growing sense of insecurity among citizens.
The vast majority of citizens do not seek revenge but demand safety. Prison overcrowding makes society less safe. When prisons become universities of crime instead of places of rehabilitation, when inmates leave more embittered and less prepared than when they entered, we are creating the conditions for new crimes. Overcrowding prevents the implementation of effective educational programs, limits access to work inside prisons, makes individualized rehabilitation impossible, and increases the burden on prison officers—who are, in fact, more numerous relative to the prison population than in other European countries. Security is synonymous with reintegration: a rehabilitated former inmate means one less criminal, one fewer victim, and one less social cost.
P.S. The next issue of eco, on newsstands from April 18, will focus on how middle powers can contain the outbreak of conflicts around the world.
